Jack Dorsey and Peter Todd are among the Bitcoiners voicing support for privacy messaging app Signal to adopt Bitcoin amid a “Bitcoin for Signal” campaign.

Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, NFTs, Web3 and crypto regulation.

Tom Lee's influence on Ethereum could accelerate its institutional adoption, enhancing its credibility and integration into traditional finance.

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Schwab's crypto trading entry may accelerate mainstream adoption, attracting younger investors and reshaping traditional investment landscapes.

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The US Department of Justice has seized 127,195 Bitcoin (BTC) linked to Chen Zhi, the alleged operator of a massive “pig butchering” scam based in Cambodia. The value of the seized Bitcoin—around $15 billion—marks the largest forfeiture action in the DOJ’s history, underscoring the scale of global crypto-related financial crimes and the US government’s growing role in tracking and recovering digital assets.

The indictment against Chen Zhi was unsealed this week in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, revealing details of a complex international fraud operation that targeted thousands of victims worldwide through sophisticated investment scams. Prosecutors allege that Chen and his associates laundered billions in stolen funds through cryptocurrency exchanges and shell companies before the assets were traced and frozen.

This latest seizure adds to the already significant Bitcoin reserves held by the US government from past enforcement actions, including those tied to the Silk Road, Bitfinex hack, and other major cases. In total, US holdings now exceed 316,000 BTC, valued at nearly $36 billion at current prices, making the government one of the largest Bitcoin holders globally.

US Government’s Bitcoin Holdings Grow After Historic Seizure

CryptoQuant reports that the US government now controls 316,760 BTC, worth roughly $35.9 billion, following its latest seizure from Chen Zhi’s “pig butchering” scam. The 127,195 BTC confiscated in this case alone—currently valued at $13.2 billion—marks the largest single Bitcoin seizure ever conducted by the Department of Justice. At Bitcoin’s peak earlier this year, those same holdings were worth around $15.5 billion.

This operation cements the US as one of the largest known Bitcoin holders, with its wallet comprising assets from several major law enforcement actions over the past decade. The most significant components include:

Bitfinex Hack (2016) — Law enforcement recovered 106,910 BTC stolen from the crypto exchange after a multi-year investigation. The funds were linked to Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan, who laundered billions before being arrested in 2022.

Silk Road (2013) — The government confiscated 81,988 BTC from the dark web marketplace operated by Ross Ulbricht. This remains one of the earliest and most famous crypto seizures.

Potapenko/Turogin (2022) — A smaller seizure of 667 BTC connected to Estonian nationals accused of running a $575 million crypto fraud through shell mining services.

Together, these seizures highlight how the US has quietly become a major Bitcoin whale—a position gained not through investment, but through relentless enforcement and asset recovery in the digital age.

Bitcoin Holds Support But Faces Resistance Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $111,142, showing signs of stabilization after last week’s flash crash that briefly sent prices below $104,000. The 12-hour chart reveals that BTC has found temporary support near the $110,000 zone, which has acted as a key demand area multiple times since mid-September. This range now serves as a battleground between cautious buyers and sellers capitalizing on market weakness.

However, BTC remains below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, both currently converging around $114,000–$116,000, creating strong short-term resistance. The 200-day (red) moving average sits near $112,000, slightly above current levels, signaling that the broader trend is still fragile. A clean break above these levels could open the path toward $117,500, but failure to regain momentum may expose BTC to another test of $108,000–$110,000.

Trading volumes remain elevated but slightly cooling compared to last Friday’s capitulation event, suggesting consolidation rather than panic. Overall, Bitcoin appears to be in a recovery phase, though the lack of directional conviction indicates that traders are waiting for stronger catalysts — whether from macro data, ETF flows, or on-chain signals — before taking decisive positions.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The World Bank has published a report discussing Ripple’s Interledger and XRP. They indicated that the payment solutions involving XRP were promising, as they enable the exchange of currencies across different networks. 

World Bank Talks About Ripple And XRP

Crypto influencer SMQKE shared a World Bank report on ‘Blockchain Interoperability’ that considered Ripple’s Interledger, noting how anyone can receive any currency of their choice using XRP. The bank described this as being “very promising” for the payment domain, as it enables the exchange of value across different payment networks. 

The bank further stated that the Interledger routes packets of value in the same way as the Internet routes packets of information. The World Bank report highlighted how the Interledger is addressing interoperability, as the team has developed several settlement rails for both crypto and non-crypto payments, with XRP a major part of this solution. 

Notably, Ripple also continues to adopt several payment standards, including the ISO 20022 standard, to ensure that its payment solution can be adopted for cross-border transactions. XRP is known to serve as the bridge currency, enabling users to transfer and receive any currency of their choice. 

The report highlighted the functions of nodes on the Interledger, in which XRP acts as the router, connecting the sender of USD and the receiver of another currency like Bitcoin. This also applies to non-crypto payments, as one can send USD and receive another currency with XRP serving as the router.  

Meanwhile, SMQKE had mentioned how the payment firm had previously collaborated with the World Bank to advance the modernization of global payment clearing and back-end infrastructure. Ripple’s partnerships with several banks are one of the reasons why members of the XRP community envisage that XRP could make headway in the global financial ecosystem. SMQKE recently shared documents that showed Ripple’s integration into the European financial system. 

The Firm Makes Headway In Africa

Ripple announced that it has partnered with South Africa’s Absa to provide crypto custody services for the financial institution. Pro-XRP lawyer Bill Morgan indicated that this development may represent a major win for XRP. He noted that the collaboration between Ripple and the bank is not only about custody but seems to be connected to the broader demand for Ripple’s payment solutions in Africa.

Morgan further remarked that with announcements such as that, there is more to know behind the announcement. Notably, the company earlier this year partnered with the African fintech giant Chipper Cash to integrate its payment technology into the platform. Ripple also partnered with Yellow Card to introduce its RLUSD stablecoin to African users. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.40, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

No one has a crystal ball, but if Bitcoin continues to behave according to its past cycles, then we’ve most likely already reached the peak.

Bitcoin printed an all-time high on Oct. 6, but it failed to extend the move as the post-halving clock approaches the peak zone seen in prior cycles.

The 2024 halving landed on April 20, and prior peaks arrived roughly 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving.

On that cadence, the current cycle’s peak window spans roughly mid-October to late November.

The Oct. 6 print near $126,200 has not been reclaimed, with spot trading churning between $105,000 to $114,000 and key support near $108,000.

The timing case now intersects with a clear macro shock.

Since the all-time high, the White House announced a new tariff package on Chinese imports, including rates of up to 100 percent on some goods. The headline hit crypto as futures deleveraged roughly $19 billion of liquidations within 24 hours.

Derivatives positioning shifted as well, with heavier demand for downside protection after the wipeout. Funding stresses on the traditional side also flickered, as Reuters reported an unusual jump in usage of the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, a sign that short-term dollar funding tightened into the same window.

The flow tape remains the near-term arbiter. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have operated as the cycle’s marginal buyer. Farside Investors publishes consolidated daily creations and redemptions that allow a quick read on whether cash is entering or leaving the wrapper.

Weekly fund flow context is provided by CoinShares, which tracks broader digital-asset products. A multi-session run of broad net inflows would keep the door open for a late-cycle marginal high.

A choppy to negative run would strengthen the case that Oct. 6 marked the cycle top.

A scenario framework helps translate those inputs into prices and time.

Historic bear runs in Bitcoin ran from about 12 to 18 months and drew down roughly 57 percent in 2018 and 76 percent in 2014 from peak to trough, a pattern charted by NYDIG.

The market structure now includes spot ETFs and deeper derivatives markets, so a lighter band of 35 to 55 percent is a reasonable reference for downside risk management. Applied to $126,272, that produces trough zones of roughly $82,000 to $57,000.

That timeline would place a low sometime in late 2026 into early 2027, broadly in line with the halving cadence referenced above.

The probability that a top is already in rises when timing, macro, and flow all lean the same way. The halving clock is late in the typical range.

The tariff shock created real-economy uncertainty and a visible risk premium in derivatives. Repo facility usage jumped to tighter dollar liquidity.

Bitcoin price has failed to sustain above the early October high and now trades below the first support. The burden of proof sits with demand, and the ETF tape is the cleanest daily measure.

Some argue that the traditional Bitcoin cycle ended when ETFs launched, but new demand has never ended the cyclical pattern in the past. Will it really do it now?

To date, each Bitcoin cycle has delivered diminishing returns. If $126,000 really is the peak for this cycle, that would work out to an 82% gain.

The first drop (Cycle 1→2) saw returns fall by ~57%.

The next drop (Cycle 2→3) saw another ~84% reduction.

If that decay rate had continued proportionally (roughly 70–80% less each cycle), the expected return would have been around 50–70%, not 82%.

So, the potential 82% gain already represents a minor falloff compared to the exponential decay pattern implied by earlier cycles.

This cycle’s relative return is above the trend, potentially signaling a maturing but still resilient cycle, even if this is the top.

While historical returns show a clear decay curve, this cycle’s potential 82% gain slightly breaks the expected downward slope, suggesting either the start of a slower decay phase or structural changes (e.g., ETF demand, institutional capital) moderating the long-term diminishing-return trend.

The opposite case requires a specific sequence.

A five-to-ten-day streak of broad net creations across the ETF complex would show persistent cash demand.

Options skew would need to pivot back toward calls for more than a transient bounce, a shift that third-party dashboards such as Laevitas.

Spot would then need to clear and hold above $126,272 with expanding volume.

That path could produce a marginal new high in the $135,000 to $155,000 area before distribution resumes, a pattern echoed in our past cycle commentaries.

If those conditions do not form by the end of the traditional 518 to 580 day window, time itself becomes the headwind.

Miners add another forward cue. Post-halving revenue per unit of hash has compressed, and fee share moderated from spring spikes, which tightens cash flow for older fleets. The economics and fleet turnover dynamics are followed by Hashrate Index.

If price weakens while energy costs stay firm, periodic miner selling to meet operating costs and service debt can emerge. That supply tends to meet thin order books after shocks. On-chain valuation bands such as MVRV and MVRV-Z help frame late-cycle risk, though absolute thresholds vary by cycle and should not be used in isolation.

Macro carries its own scoreboard.

The dollar path interacts with risk appetite, and Reuters FX wraps provide a running read on relative strength. Rate expectations are tracked by CME FedWatch, which helps interpret whether the tariff shock and any follow-on inflation pressure are altering the path of policy.

If easing expectations slip while the repo facility remains elevated, liquidity for speculative assets can stay constrained.

Readers can track the framework with the table below.

The leverage profile argues for patience. Traders added downside hedges after the tariff shock instead of chasing upside. That is consistent with a market more focused on capital preservation than momentum.

If ETF inflows do not resume quickly, dealer hedging flows from put buying can keep rallies contained. If inflows resume, the structure can shift fast, which is why the tape needs daily attention.

None of this discounts the structural bid in Bitcoin created by the ETF wrapper or the long-run effect of a fixed supply. It maps the late-cycle setup that now carries macro pressure. The halving timer is nearing the end of its historical window.

The Oct. 6 high stands as the price to beat. Until flows change the balance, the distribution case remains the cleaner read.

The post Hodl or take profits? Bitcoin bear market cycle started at $126k appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Elon Musk recently revived the “51 % renewables” benchmark, stating that the energy backing Bitcoin “can’t be faked.”

The reference is to his earlier promise that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin payments once at least half of mining energy came from clean or low-carbon sources.

However, now that the latest data suggests the network may have crossed that threshold, Tesla still hasn’t re-enabled BTC checkout. Why?

Has Bitcoin passed the bar yet?

According to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance’s 2025 Digital Mining Industry Report, sustainable energy now powers approximately 52.4 % of surveyed Bitcoin mining activity.

Of that, 42.6 % is from renewables (hydro, wind, solar, etc.) and 9.8 % from nuclear or other low-carbon sources. In parallel, fossil fuel contributions have shifted: natural gas now accounts for 38.2 % (up from ~25 % in 2022), and coal has fallen to 8.9 % (down from ~36.6 %).

If Musk’s promise is taken literally, Bitcoin may already exceed the 51 % “sustainable energy” bar, at least as measured by Cambridge’s survey of firms that cover roughly 48 % of global mining capacity.

But this is only half the story. The wording matters: Musk has referenced renewables (50 %) in earlier comments, though in later tweets he says “51 % renewable” or “energy you can’t fake.” The Cambridge figure lumps renewables + nuclear; the pure renewables share is lower (42.6 %).

So, BTC may still fall short depending on the rigidity of Musk’s definition.

Moreover, the Cambridge approach is survey-based and covers only a subset of miners. Off-grid operations, curtailed renewables, regional idiosyncrasies, and temporal mismatches (when renewables produce more or less relative to mining demand) complicate the picture.

Alternate models, such as those based on grid carbon intensity or energy tracing, often yield more conservative estimates of renewable share. That divergence means even a nominal “pass” is subject to debate.

So why hasn’t Tesla flipped the switch?

Even granting that Bitcoin may now qualify under Musk’s sustainability test, Tesla has not re-enabled BTC payments. Several pragmatic and symbolic hurdles remain.

The first is due diligence. Musk previously stated that Tesla would only restart payments once he saw “reasonable (~50 %) clean energy usage … and a trend toward increasing that number.” That wording implies he is looking for persistence, not a one-off data point.

A single report showing 52 % sustainable energy may not satisfy his requirement for a verified and sustained upward trend in Bitcoin’s energy mix.

Another factor is definition clarity. Tesla would need to decide whether “sustainable” includes nuclear and low-carbon sources or strictly renewables like hydro, wind, and solar. The Cambridge data combines these categories, but Musk’s earlier phrasing referenced renewables specifically.

Without a universally accepted definition, any decision to resume BTC payments risks being accused of greenwashing.

There is also the issue of merchant and market risk. Accepting Bitcoin exposes Tesla to price volatility, complex accounting treatment, and potential regulatory complications.

Even if the company immediately converts BTC receipts to fiat, fluctuations between order placement and settlement introduce financial uncertainty that may not be worth the effort for a car manufacturer operating on thin margins.

Brand optics add another layer. Tesla’s image is built on environmental credibility, and even a minor backslide in Bitcoin’s energy profile could trigger backlash from investors and ESG-minded customers. The company may prefer to err on the side of caution rather than face renewed criticism if mining activity shifts back toward fossil-heavy regions.

Finally, operational integration cannot be ignored. To bring Bitcoin payments back online, Tesla would need to rebuild wallet infrastructure, transaction pipelines, and conversion mechanisms. That requires engineering resources and internal approvals: steps that are far from trivial for a global manufacturer already balancing multiple product launches and software initiatives.

Taken together, these factors suggest that clearing the 51 % renewable threshold is not enough on its own. For Musk, the test seems to be as much about confidence, consistency, and perception as about raw data. Until those align, Tesla’s checkout page is likely to stay crypto-free.

What this means for adoption

From a narrative standpoint, Musk’s reengagement wields influence. If Bitcoin can credibly cleave to a cleaner energy mix and major commercial counterparts like Tesla begin transacting again, it would reinforce a more sustainable narrative for crypto.

Yet Tesla’s continued off-chain status despite claims suggests Musk views the promise as conditional, not automatic. The test is as much about optics, risk control, and narrative as it is about simple metrics.

For now, Bitcoin’s claimed “51 %+ sustainable” status offers a compelling rebuttal to critics, but until checkouts return, it remains more of a symbolic win than a commercial one.

The post Elon Musk: ‘You can’t fake energy.’ Has Bitcoin finally gone green enough for Tesla? appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Florida lawmakers have launched the 2026 legislative session with a proposal to integrate Bitcoin into the state’s official investment strategy.

The measure, filed on October 15, could make Florida one of the first US states to manage digital assets as part of its public reserves.

Lawmakers Push for Crypto Reserve Strategy

The initiative, filed as House Bill 183 by Representative Webster Barnaby, authorizes the state’s Chief Financial Officer to allocate up to 10% of specific funds—including the General Revenue Fund and the Budget Stabilization Fund—into Bitcoin and other digital-asset products.

The bill defines digital assets broadly, encompassing Bitcoin, tokenized securities, and NFTs. It also extends similar authority to the State Board of Administration, allowing the Florida Retirement System to invest up to 10% of its System Trust Fund in digital assets.

The measure requires strict custody rules, permitting holdings only through the CFO, a licensed custodian, or an SEC-registered ETF. Supporters say this framework ensures compliance with federal standards and institutional-grade security.

“States are seeking to modernize their balance sheets,” said Julian Fahrer, founder of tracking platform Bitcoin Laws.

“More than 50 digital-asset reserve bills have been introduced across the US this year, and Florida is clearly moving early,” he added.

HB 183 also allows residents to pay certain taxes and fees in digital assets. These payments would be automatically converted to US dollars and deposited into state accounts. The bill’s effective date is set for July 1, 2026.

The proposal cites a March 2025 White House executive order establishing a federal “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which uses seized digital assets as part of national holdings. Lawmakers view this as validation for states to explore Bitcoin as a store of value and inflation hedge.

Policy Signal for Wider Adoption

Florida’s move comes as Arizona, New Hampshire, and Texas have already enacted similar frameworks, while others prepare for new sessions in early 2026. Analysts say the momentum could accelerate competition among states seeking to attract digital-finance investment.

If approved, HB 183 could mark a shift in public-fund management and inspire further policy innovation. State-level integration of Bitcoin may also create a model for municipal treasuries and pension funds nationwide.

Florida has already positioned itself as a crypto-forward state through a series of pioneering policies. In 2023, the state established the Office of Fintech Policy and launched a Financial Technology Sandbox program in 2025 to test innovative digital finance solutions. These moves have attracted crypto startups and investors, boosting Florida’s standing as a regional fintech hub.

Analysts note that combining these initiatives with HB 183 could amplify Florida’s policy continuity and market appeal. A clear legal framework and pro-innovation stance may accelerate capital inflows and enterprise formation, positioning Florida as one of the most competitive crypto jurisdictions in the United States.

HB 183 now awaits committee hearings in the Florida House before advancing to the Senate for debate.

The post Florida Moves to Legalize Bitcoin Investments in State Funds appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Gold-linked digital assets are surging as the metal’s price climbs above $4,370 per ounce. The rally has prompted issuers to launch new blockchain-based products, turning gold into an on-chain financial instrument.

The surge reflects a wider convergence between traditional commodities and digital assets. As inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty persist, investors are turning to tokenized versions of gold as a stable, transparent, and easily transferable hedge against volatility.

Tether Launches XAUT0 as Gold Tokens Near $3.4B

The tokenized gold sector has grown rapidly in 2025, with total capitalization nearing $3.4 billion, up from $500 million early this year. It is one of the fastest-growing categories in the tokenization ecosystem, fueled by institutional demand for stable, asset-backed instruments.

In particular, Tether expanded its lineup with XAUT0, an omnichain gold token launched on October 15 through the Legacy Mesh interoperability framework on Solana. The system links Solana to Tether’s $175 billion cross-chain liquidity base across Ethereum, Tron, and other blockchains. As a result, each XAUT0 represents a fraction of a troy ounce of physical gold held in audited vaults.

More than 7,300 XAUT0 tokens are now in circulation, processing over $25 billion in total bridge volume, according to Everdawn Labs.

“Gold-backed tokens are becoming the fastest-growing segment of tokenized assets,” said Alex Tapscott, CEO of CMCC Global Capital Markets.

He noted that daily trading in tokenized gold now exceeds $600 million, mirroring strong demand for physical bullion.

Surging Prices and Expanding Market Share

Analysts say tokenized gold bridges traditional finance and digital liquidity. Unlike physical bars, these tokens settle instantly and integrate into decentralized-finance platforms.

“Gold has a 5,000-year record as a store of value,” said Alex Melikhov, co-founder of BrettonWoods Labs. “Tokenization brings that reliability into a verifiable digital format.”

PAX Gold (PAXG)—trading around $4,413—has surged more than 65% year-over-year, while Tether Gold (XAUT)—priced near $4,360—has gained 63%. Their combined market capitalization is now approaching $3.0 billion, showing how physical value stores are shifting onto blockchains.

Moreover, average daily trading for PAXG has doubled over the past year, surpassing $300 million, CoinGecko data show. Analysts link this momentum to institutional inflows from funds and family offices seeking digital exposure to gold.

Regulators are slowly warming to tokenization. US SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently said, “If it can be tokenized, it should be tokenized,” calling it a key modernization priority.

Still, oversight and reserve transparency remain essential for investor trust.

The post Tokenized Gold Soars as Metal Hits Record Highs appeared first on BeInCrypto.

On-chain data shows key investors on the Bitcoin network have collectively participated in some selling recently, a potential reason behind the asset’s decline.

Bitcoin Sharks & Whales Have Done Some Net Distribution

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, Bitcoin’s key investor tier is starting to show signs of slight profit-taking. The indicator of interest here is the “Supply Distribution,” which measures the total amount of the supply that investors belonging to a particular wallet segment are currently holding.

Addresses or holders are divided into these groups based on the number of tokens present in their balance. The 1 to 10 coins cohort, for instance, includes all investors owning between 1 and 10 BTC. In the context of the current discussion, a broad range of 10 to 10,000 coins is of focus. It converts to $1.1 million at the lower end and $1.1 billion at the upper end. Given this scale, the range would naturally cover some of the key Bitcoin investor cohorts like the sharks and whales.

Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Supply Distribution for the range over the last few months.

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the 10 to 10,000 coins group saw a drop of 17,554 BTC (about $1.9 billion) between October 12th and 14th. Before this decline, the metric had been in an uptrend since late August. The cryptocurrency’s recovery attempt has fizzled out since this selloff occurred, so it would appear possible that the profit-taking from the sharks and whales could, in part, be behind the bearish action.

On a more long-term scale, though, this latest distribution spree from the key investors isn’t too significant, as their wallets have still grown since the start of 2025 by 318,610 BTC, worth a whopping $35.5 billion.

A similar light profit-taking event took place in late August, following which the sharks and whales quickly corrected course and resumed accumulation. This buying then supported BTC’s bullish push. Wallet balance is just one way to classify holders. Another popular methodology in on-chain analysis is using holding time to separate investors between short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). The cutoff between the two cohorts is 155 days.

The STHs may be considered to represent the fickle-minded side of the market, while the LTHs are resolute diamond hands. These HODLers have been selling recently, however, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has shared in an X post.

A net 265,715 BTC has exited the wallets of the Bitcoin LTHs over the past 30 days, which is the largest monthly outflow since early January.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been unable to keep any recovery run going as its price is still trading around $111,000.

XRP is facing renewed pressure this week after the Oct. 10 flash crash triggered record liquidations across the crypto market. The token plunged nearly 40% intraday before rebounding, now hovering between $2.20 and $2.60 as traders assess what’s next.

Despite heavy whale selling and lingering volatility, market analysts insist that “this week could change everything” for XRP, with key ETF decisions and regulatory milestones approaching that could redefine its long-term outlook.

Flash-Crash Fallout: Liquidations, Whale Flows, and Key Support

XRP was swept up in the Oct. 10 crypto “flash crash,” sliding intraday by 40% before rebounding to a monthly loss near 20%. The trigger wasn’t a protocol flaw but a leverage washout tied to tariff headlines that jolted risk assets.

Heavy forced deleveraging slammed both CEX and DEX liquidity, pulling most majors sharply lower in minutes. Since then, XRP has steadied in the $2.20–$2.60 band, with the 200-day EMA near $2.62 now a pivotal pivot.

On-chain flows show mixed positioning as large holders sent sizable tranches to exchanges during the drop (a classic profit-taking/hedge tell), yet the torrent slowed after Oct. 11, helping price stabilize.

Technically, bulls need a daily close back above $2.80–$3.00 to neutralize the short-term downtrend; lose $2.20, and the next magnet sits near $1.80. Notably, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin held its peg through the chaos, an institutional-friendly datapoint that underscores XRPL’s operational resilience under stress.

Derivatives Heat Up as XRP ETF Window Nears

Currently, futures open interest eased, but options activity surged triple-digits, signaling traders are bracing for larger moves. Long/short ratios remain skewed long on major venues, fertile ground for volatility if support cracks.

That backdrop meets a dense ETF decision window (Oct. 18–25) for issuers including Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and CoinShares.

Pundits point out that the SEC’s shortened 75-day review is a sign of an accelerated process, even as macro cross-currents (tariffs, growth jitters) complicate risk appetite.

Legal clarity also looms large as courts have affirmed XRP isn’t a security on secondary markets, removing a structural overhang that kept many institutions sidelined last cycle.

What Would Flip the Trend

With the XRP price below the 20/50/100-day EMAs and the Supertrend still bearish, momentum remains fragile. Bulls need:

1. Price confirmation: Reclaim $2.80–$3.00 with rising spot volume to target $3.50–$3.80.
2. Flows confirmation: Net ETF inflows and calming options skew to validate dip-buying.
3. Macro calm: Softer tariff rhetoric and benign data to reopen risk windows.

These absent, a break below $2.20 risks a deeper corrective leg toward $1.80, with tail-risk bears eyeing $0.75 in a severe macro shock.

Nonetheless, the institutional narrative is intact as RLUSD’s stability, CBDC/RWA conversations tied to XRPL, and a maturing compliance toolset all support longer-term adoption. That’s why some analysts insist “this week changes everything”, if regulatory catalysts align, XRP’s next leg higher could begin.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD on Tradingview