Though the US dominated the number of requests from agencies in individual countries, Coinbase reported a modest increase in the overall number outside the country.

Ether futures overtake Bitcoin on CME as ETH volatility spikes, fueling debate over a potential Ether super-cycle amid a broader crypto market pullback.

Kalshi launches tokenized event contracts on Solana, enabling regulated, on-chain trading of event outcomes on the blockchain network.

The post Kalshi brings tokenized event contracts to Solana appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Coinbase expands its Coinbase 50 Index with Hedera, Mantle, VeChain, Immutable, Sei, and Flare, noting their rising market relevance.

The post Coinbase adds six new tokens to its top 50 index appeared first on Crypto Briefing.

Infrastruktura płatnicza oparta na blockchainie przestaje być eksperymentem, a staje się regulowanym biznesem. Rynek kryptowalut wchodzi na kolejny etap. Z jednej strony w 2025 roku rośnie presja regulatorów na giełdy i podmioty emitujące stablecoiny. Z drugiej projekty takie jak Ripple konsekwentnie pozyskują licencje na kluczowych rynkach azjatyckich. XRP poczyniło kolejny duży krok w rozwoju – Ripple ze zgodą od Singapuru na rozwój regulowanych usług płatniczych!

Nowa fala infrastruktury krypto. Czego potrzebują inwestorzy?

Po pierwsze, bezpieczne bramki wejścia z walut tradycyjnych do kryptowalut oraz wiarygodne platformy handlowe wciąż stanowią fundament ekspozycji na BTC, XRP czy innych altcoinów. Stąd wybór odpowiedniej giełdy i metody zakupu kryptowalut pozostaje kluczowy. Po drugie, rosną też oczekiwania wobec samych sieci. Muszą być skalowalne, tanie i zgodne z nowymi standardami regulacyjnymi.

Na tym tle coraz głośniej mówi się o kolejnej fali innowacji infrastrukturalnych, zwłaszcza wokół Bitcoina. Obok rozwoju warstwy płatniczej i stablecoinów na regulowanych rynkach, pojawiają się projekty próbujące rozszerzyć funkcjonalność BTC poprzez rozwiązania warstwy 2. Jednym z nich jest Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), który stawia na połączenie bezpieczeństwa Bitcoina z wydajnością środowiska SVM znanego z Solany.

Singapur wzmacnia trend regulowanych płatności opartych na krypto

Decyzja singapurskiego regulatora, by dopuścić Ripple do szerszego świadczenia regulowanych usług płatniczych, potwierdza atrakcyjność jurysdykcji Azji Południowo‑Wschodniej dla firm krypto‑fintech. To region, w którym transgraniczne przelewy detaliczne i B2B są codziennością, a tradycyjne systemy SWIFT bywają zbyt wolne i kosztowne.

Huge news from Singapore: https://t.co/KVxTs7IEKc

The @MAS_sg has approved an expanded scope of payment activities for our Major Payment Institution license – enabling us to deliver end-to-end, fully licensed payment services to our customers in the region.

— Ripple (@Ripple) December 1, 2025

Zgoda Singapuru to także sygnał dla banków i instytucji finansowych, że rozwiązania oparte na blockchainie mogą funkcjonować w ściśle nadzorowanym otoczeniu prawnym. Dla użytkowników końcowych liczy się jednak przede wszystkim doświadczenie, czyli szybkość rozliczeń, niższe opłaty i mniejsza zależność od pośredników. Ten sam zestaw oczekiwań coraz częściej przenosi się na pozostałe segmenty rynku kryptowalut, w tym infrastrukturę Bitcoina.

Rozwój regulowanych usług płatniczych zwiększa presję na tradycyjne giełdy kryptowalut, które muszą nadążyć za standardami KYC i AML oraz rosnącą konkurencją fintechów posiadających licencje płatnicze. Dla polskich inwestorów wybór najlepszej giełdy oraz sposobu, jak kupić kryptowaluty, w praktyce oznacza połączenie wygody, opłat i poziomu regulacji.

Bitcoin jako rezerwa, ale rynek domaga się warstwy 2

Bitcoin pozostaje przede wszystkim cyfrową rezerwą wartości, a nie siecią transakcyjną wysokiej przepustowości. Ograniczona przepustowość rzędu kilku transakcji na sekundę i rosnące w szczytach cyklu opłaty on‑chain utrudniają budowę na nim masowych usług finansowych czy gamingowych. To od lat otwiera przestrzeń dla rozwiązań warstwy 2.

Lightning Network częściowo odpowiada na potrzebę błyskawicznych płatności, ale wciąż ma ograniczoną funkcjonalność, jeśli chodzi o złożone smart kontrakty i DeFi. Inwestorzy szukają więc projektów, które potrafią połączyć bezpieczeństwo Bitcoina jako warstwy rozliczeniowej z elastycznością nowoczesnych maszyn wirtualnych, znanych choćby z Solany czy EVM. To w tym segmencie pojawia się miejsce na eksperymenty z nowymi L2.

Bitcoin Hyper: eksperyment z SVM na warstwie 2 Bitcoina

Na tym tle Bitcoin Hyper pozycjonuje się jako jedno z pierwszych podejść do stworzenia warstwy 2 dla Bitcoina z pełną integracją Solana Virtual Machine. Architektura zakłada wykorzystanie Bitcoina jako warstwy rozliczeniowej. Rzeczywiste wykonywanie transakcji odbywa się na L2 z masowo wyższą przepustowością i znacznie szybszym czasem transakcji.

Projekt celuje w ekosystem DeFi i dApps, które dziś migrują tam, gdzie opłaty liczone są w ułamkach centa, a smart kontrakty można pisać w dojrzałych językach jak Rust. Dzięki kompatybilności z tokenami SPL, zmodyfikowanymi na potrzeby L2, możliwe jest przeniesienie części istniejącej infrastruktury z Solany przy zachowaniu rozliczenia w BTC na pierwszej warstwie.

Kluczowym komponentem ma być zdecentralizowany most kanoniczny dla transferów BTC między L1 a L2. To podejście upraszcza osiąganie wysokiej wydajności, ale rodzi pytania o stopień decentralizacji i model zaufania, co stanowi bardzo istotną kwestię dla konserwatywnych posiadaczy Bitcoina.

Z perspektywy inwestorów istotne są twarde liczby. Według danych projektu, przedsprzedaż tokena $HYPER zebrała już 28 814 775,96 dolarów, przy cenie 0,013355 dolara za sztukę. Wczesne zaangażowanie większych portfeli nie gwarantuje sukcesu, ale często bywa obserwowane w projektach, które później przyciągają płynność na L2.

Model ekonomiczny przewiduje wysokie APY dla stakingu. Dla uczestników przedsprzedaży zaplanowano siedmiodniowy okres vestingu przy jednoczesnej dystrybucji nagród za udział społecznościowy. W praktyce oznacza to zachętę do aktywnego korzystania z sieci, a nie jedynie biernego trzymania tokenów.

Co oznacza to dla polskich inwestorów?

Zgoda Singapuru dla Ripple pokazuje, że infrastruktura płatności oparta na krypto wchodzi w etap regulowanej komercjalizacji. Jednocześnie wyścig o zbudowanie skalowalnej warstwy 2 dla Bitcoina, reprezentowany m.in. przez Bitcoin Hyper, sygnalizuje, że rynek nie zadowoli się samą narracją cyfrowego złota bez realnych zastosowań transakcyjnych.

Dla polskich użytkowników oznacza to konieczność selekcji: zarówno przy wyborze giełdy i metod zakupu kryptowalut, jak i przy analizie nowych projektów infrastrukturalnych. Eksperymentalne rozwiązania L2, w tym $HYPER, mogą oferować wysokie potencjalne zyski, ale wymagają chłodnej oceny ryzyka technologicznego i regulacyjnego. Aby wziąć w nich udział, można dołączyć do przedsprzedaży $HYPER.

Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 level, intensifying speculation that the market may be entering the early stages of a broader bearish cycle. The drop comes as on-chain and derivatives data reveal a notable shift in investor behavior, especially among large holders.

According to a recent CryptoQuant report by Darkfost, whales have become significantly more active on Binance, driving a marked increase in BTC inflows to the exchange. This rise in transfers exceeding 100 BTC suggests that the market’s largest players have begun adjusting their positioning, often a sign of evolving risk attitudes and strategic repositioning.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been in a corrective phase for nearly two months, consolidating after its prior rally. This pause has been accompanied by a sharp contraction in Open Interest, which has fallen from $47.5 billion to roughly $29 billion today.

The decline reflects substantial disengagement from speculative positions, whether triggered by cautious profit-taking or by liquidations cascading through the derivatives market.

Whale Defense Intensifies as Retail Investors Remain Passive

Darkfost highlights that the rise in whale inflows—measured using a 90-day average—offers a deeper understanding of the current market mood. This metric shows that major holders are prioritizing protection in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, the average whale inflow to Binance has effectively doubled, now approaching 4,000 BTC. Such an increase is rarely insignificant; it typically reflects hedging, de-risking, or preparing liquidity for active repositioning.

In contrast, inflows from retail investors have remained relatively stable and far less volatile. Their exchange activity has not experienced the same directional surge, suggesting that smaller market participants have not meaningfully adjusted their exposure. This divergence creates a striking behavioral split between investor classes.

While whales shift into a defensive posture—moving coins, reassessing exposure, and potentially preparing for further downside—retail participants appear more passive. This may indicate slower reaction times to macro and on-chain signals or simply lower capital at risk.

Historically, such patterns emerge during transitional phases in the market, when sophisticated holders take early precautionary measures before broader sentiment shifts. The growing contrast reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is navigating a phase where caution dominates among its biggest players.

Bitcoin Tests 200 SMA as Market Searches for Direction

Bitcoin’s 3-day chart shows a decisive shift in momentum, with price breaking below the 50 SMA and 100 SMA after weeks of persistent selling pressure. The failure to hold the $90,000 level pushed BTC into its sharpest correction since mid-2024, and the structure now reflects a market struggling to stabilize. The current candle cluster is forming directly on top of the 200 SMA, a historically significant long-term support zone that often separates cyclical uptrends from deeper bearish phases.

The reaction so far has been mixed. BTC briefly dipped below the 200 SMA before recovering back above it, signaling that buyers are attempting to defend the trend boundary. However, the bounce lacks conviction, and volume remains elevated on down candles—an indication that sellers are still aggressive. As long as BTC trades below the 50 and 100 SMAs, the market structure remains vulnerable.

The downtrend also shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that momentum favors continuation unless $92,000–$95,000 is reclaimed. Losing the 200 SMA on a closing basis would open the door to deeper retracements toward $78,000 and $72,000, where prior consolidation zones sit.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

If you open your brokerage this year and a “Markets” tab seems to be sprouting unfamiliar yes/no questions (“Will the Fed cut rates in March?”, “Will a major ETF get approved this quarter?”), you wouldn’t necessarily be hallucinating. The recent regulatory green-light for Polymarket via a cleared path under its newest acquisition of an exchange and its clearinghouse means those kinds of event-contracts might soon appear inside mainstream trading apps.

Meanwhile, a court in Nevada has tightened the lines around what counts as “financial trading” vs. “gambling,” complicating the view on sports or athlete-based markets.

Prediction markets plug into brokerage

Polymarket’s comeback doesn’t arrive on the strength of hype or speculation alone. Earlier this year, the firm acquired QCX LLC and QC Clearing, entities already licensed under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That maneuver laid a firm regulatory foundation for their bold expansion plans.

In September 2025, the CFTC then issued a no-action letter that provided relief to QCX/QC Clearing under certain recordkeeping and reporting exemptions for event contracts. That relief effectively restored a legal avenue for Polymarket to serve US customers under the traditional exchange and clearing framework.

Finally, in late November 2025, Polymarket received an “Amended Order of Designation,” formally permitting it to operate in the US as a regulated exchange. Under this order, brokerages and futures commission merchants (FCMs) can list and clear Polymarket contracts.

That path is critical, as it launches Polymarket from a niche, quasi-black-market website into the orbit of mainstream finance, meaning familiar apps your friends use for stocks or ETFs could theoretically integrate these event-based bets.

Brokers won’t need to build entirely new infrastructure to enable the well-loved and frequently-used prediction markets we know in crypto; they just tap into existing derivatives clearing and custody rails. It slots into what’s already there for everything from user experience to back-office plumbing. For someone casually checking markets, including portfolio values, yield products, and crypto quotes, a binary prediction contract could soon appear as just another instrument.

Betting or hedging? The fine, fine, fine shifting line

That said, not all event markets travel the same regulatory terrain. Federal approval doesn’t equal universal acceptance. A freshly issued ruling from a judge in Nevada has cast a sharp shadow over sports- or athlete-based prediction contracts, even on platforms run by federally regulated exchanges such as Kalshi.

In a November 2025 decision, US District Judge Andrew Gordon found that sports-outcome contracts are not “swaps” under the federal law that governs derivatives (the “Commodity Exchange Act”). That means they fall outside the CFTC’s regulatory domain, exposing them instead to state gambling laws, even if offered through a CFTC-designated exchange.

One consequence of that is that the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) has clearly stated that sports event contracts constitute wagering activity under state law, regardless of whether a platform is federally registered.

That disconnect splits prediction markets into two broad classes:
Macro, political, financial-policy bets (rates, CPI, earnings, elections): These retain a good claim to federal oversight and may flow through brokerages generally unimpeded.

Sports, prop bets, athlete outcomes: These run into a patchwork of state gambling regimes. States such as Nevada may block their availability entirely or subject them to licensing requirements that many prediction platforms may not satisfy.

So even as Polymarket readies its relaunch, what appears in your brokerage might depend heavily on your state.

What this means if you trade on your phone

You might soon scroll past “Stocks,” “Crypto,” and “Options,” and find binary yes/no contracts on macroeconomic events (e.g., rate decisions, inflation surprises), earnings beats, or even political outcomes.

These differ from traditional options as payout is all-or-nothing (or fixed fraction), with clearly defined maximum loss (the amount invested), but possibly higher take-rates by the platform.
Liquidity could be thin, especially early on, and price swings may feel jumpier than a well-traded stock or even a popular option.

If you live in a state that deems “sports/event contracts = gambling,” such instruments might be geofenced or blocked entirely. Brokerages and FCM partners may need to implement KYC/AML, suitability checks, and state-level compliance.

The outlook: steady bets, fractured states

What could success look like for Polymarket and other event-contract platforms?

If enough brokerages integrate via QCX/QC Clearing rails, and focus remains on macro, policy, or finance events rather than sports or prop bets, the model might flourish. Election cycles, central-bank decisions, regulatory headlines, and macro inflection points naturally generate demand for binary outcome bets. People want to hedge uncertainty or stake conviction, and binary contracts meet that itch cleanly.

Yet the fractured legal landscape remains a wildcard. Nevada’s ruling may embolden other states to assert even more jurisdiction over sports-outcome contracts. That would force platforms to design around state-by-state restrictions, geofence certain event categories, or build compliance, rather than assume universal access.

Meanwhile, traditional bookmakers and sportsbooks might not cede ground easily. From their perspective, prediction markets represent competitive pressure on sports-betting revenue. A regulatory or legal pushback could win favor with incumbent stakeholders.

For casual users, especially those who log into their brokerage app without much fanfare, event contracts could become a new frontier: a hybrid between market speculation and betting. The financial-market rails offer structure, limits, and clearing. The state-by-state overlay imposes hurdles, especially around sports. What emerges might be a narrow but growing corridor, where macro and political wagers are delivered through familiar apps, while more controversial sports or props stay fringe or blocked.

When you tap “Markets” in your brokerage app and see a binary contract on “Will the central bank raise rates next meeting?,” it might no longer be a fringe novelty. It could be part of an expanding offering that’s shaped by federal rulings, strategic acquisitions, and shifting regulatory boundaries.

The post Prediction markets are coming to your brokerage appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The first thing many Ukrainians check in the morning is not Instagram or email, it is a war map. DeepStateMap.Live, a volunteer-built OSINT project, shows which villages are under occupation, where Ukrainian advances hold, and where the front looks fragile. It’s a survival tool as much as a news product, funded by donations and backed by a cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Defense to keep its view of the battlefield accurate.

Now imagine that same map, draped over a glossy 3D globe called PolyGlobe, with little icons marking Polymarket contracts like “Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?” When you hover over the bet, the exact neighborhood lights up. The area where someone’s parents live is the area where someone else has “Yes” odds priced to three decimal places.

That’s the dichotomy this story lives in: a wartime public good on one side, and a crypto prediction platform with real-money wagers on captured towns on the other.

In late November, a Ukrainian tech outlet reported that Pentagon Pizza Watch, the pseudonymous team behind PolyGlobe, had integrated DeepState’s API directly into its war-betting dashboard without permission. The map, the article said, was being pulled into a Polymarket visualization tool so that traders could see shaded control zones, unit icons, and attack arrows directly under their war bets, a “first-of-its-kind OSINT market tracker” built on top of someone else’s wartime infrastructure.

DeepState UA, the group behind the map, reacted within hours. In a public statement relayed through local media and social channels, they said they had never authorized any betting service to plug into DeepStateMap and called the use of their work in war gambling unacceptable, adding that third parties were probably accessing the data through a free API intended for humanitarian and military needs or via scrapers.

Pentagon Pizza Watch apologized and removed the integration, claiming they assumed a public endpoint was fair game. While relatively brief, the issue opened a deeper question that goes well beyond one plugin: what happens to open wartime tools when crypto markets start treating them as raw material for bets, while both Ukrainian and Russian families bury the dead from drone strikes and artillery fire?

When the frontline becomes a futures contract

Polymarket has leaned hard into geopolitical and war markets. According to reporting from dev.ua, in November, there were roughly 100 active contracts tied to the Russia–Ukraine war, from whether Russian troops would capture Pokrovsk or Myrnohrad by year’s end to when a ceasefire might finally hold, with about 97 active war bets and nearly $96.8 million in volume. A trader clicking into these markets finds language that looks more like a rules appendix than a forum about human lives.

In multiple contracts, Polymarket explicitly names the Institute for the Study of War’s interactive Ukraine map as the primary resolution source and DeepStateMap.Live as a backup if ISW becomes unavailable. If both maps go offline, the plan is to fall back to a “consensus of credible reporting.” In other words, the frontline map millions of Ukrainians use to understand whether their village is under occupation is written into the fine print of an on-chain casino as a kind of oracle of record.

Supporters of prediction markets will say this is the point. Their pitch is that you crowdsource probabilities from people willing to put money on the line, the markets digest all available information, including live OSINT feeds, and what comes out is a cleaner read on the future than any political pundit can deliver. For long-term macro questions or election odds, that argument at least fits the usual “wisdom of crowds” story.

But war is a different category. Someone checking Polymarket to see if a ceasefire has a 5% or 10% price this month is consuming a financial product. Someone checking DeepStateMap to see whether Russian artillery is near their town is trying to decide if they can drive their kids to school, just as someone in Kursk or Belgorod is trying to figure out whether Ukrainian drones are going to hit a fuel depot near their apartment.

This is a conflict that has already left tens of thousands of civilians dead. Different sources report different numbers, but the consensus is that there are more than 50,000 recorded civilian casualties in Ukraine alone, and likely well over a million soldiers on both sides killed or wounded. One side of the market is taking risks voluntarily, while the other is exposed to violence forcefully. When the two collapse into the same stack of tools, some of the distance that normally separates speculation from real-world harm disappears.

The PolyGlobe integration pushed that logic to its natural endpoint. The dev.ua report quotes the Pentagon Pizza Watch team saying that geographic war markets “constantly confuse people,” and that draping DeepState’s map over their globe would clear that up by letting users hover over a region and see “the exact area of the transaction where it is being resolved.” No more quibbling over whether a station really counts as “captured,” just zoom in and watch the map repaint in near-real time as troops move. It’s a neat little UX trick for a trader, and a stomach-turning one if that shaded district happens to be where someone you know is serving.

To be clear, Polymarket didn’t write the PolyGlobe code and never claimed to be scraping DeepState’s API. Its war markets, though, sit at the center of an orbit of tools and plugins that are, and the platform sets the basic incentive structure that makes those tools profitable.

When a third-party dashboard wraps humanitarian OSINT around Polymarket markets, it’s doing so to increase trading volume, attract more users, and make the gambling smoother for people speculating on the capture of Ukrainian towns or the fall of another Russian-held village.

That’s not an accidental side effect of an innocent tool, just the business model doing exactly what it was designed to do.

When public goods meet private odds

DeepStateMap is a high-traffic, high-stakes information source: by early 2024, the map had been viewed more than a billion times, with daily traffic in the hundreds of thousands, and its team works with the Ukrainian military to cross-check frontline information so civilians and soldiers can see where the fighting actually is.

While most of the focus is on Ukrainian territory, the same war has brought drone and missile attacks to border regions in Russia, Crimea, and the Black Sea, killing and injuring civilians there as well; the UN has documented hundreds of civilian casualties in Western Russia and occupied Crimea linked to this conflict, even without full access to Russian-controlled areas.

It’s funded by a mix of donations and government support, and its API is intentionally oriented toward humanitarian uses, journalists, and civil defense. When DeepState UA says that “systematic attempts at unauthorized use” are forcing them to tighten API access, move to individualized keys, and spend time on intellectual property enforcement, they aren’t only talking about the annoyance of a scrape.

Every hour spent policing degens is an hour not spent improving the map, hardening it against DDoS, or building better overlays for air raid patterns and artillery range on either side of the border. It pushes a volunteer-heavy team into gatekeeping mode, reviewing requests and yanking keys, instead of treating their data as a shared public utility.

The bigger risk here is that, under enough abuse, projects like DeepState conclude that open endpoints are more trouble than they are worth. They can lock the API behind closed partnerships, slow down refresh rates, or degrade granularity in the public version. That might be rational self-defense for the team, but it looks very different if you are an NGO field worker, a local journalist, or a family trying to make route decisions based on where the front appears to be.

Polymarket’s own record doesn’t make this tension easier to swallow. Earlier this year, the platform dealt with a $7 million controversy over a market on whether Donald Trump would secure a mineral deal with Ukraine. The contract settled “Yes” even though no such agreement materialized, after a large holder of UMA governance tokens reportedly used their voting power to push through that outcome. If huge financial stakes can twist a niche geopolitical market about a hypothetical Trump deal, it is not hard to imagine similar games around war contracts that rely on subtle frontline changes.

That doesn’t mean prediction markets have no place in conflict analysis. Academics and policy types have experimented with war-related contracts for years, often inside controlled, low-stakes environments, to gauge expectations about outcomes like peace agreements or sanctions.

The Polymarket version of this is different in at least two ways: the money is big, with almost $100 million traded across Russian–Ukrainian war markets in a single month according to Ukrainian press, and the experience has been tuned for retail gamblers. The result is a hybrid product that borrows the language of “information markets” but feels, to the people whose lives sit under those price charts, like a sportsbook, just with better branding.

There is a more basic question hiding underneath all of this. Whose consent matters when turning a public map of a war into infrastructure for financial bets? The company that made it? Ukrainians? Russians?

DeepState UA built its project to help Ukrainians orient themselves in a conflict that has displaced millions and killed tens of thousands of civilians, while Russians are also losing relatives and friends to a war launched in their name that now sends Ukrainian drones toward their homes. The team has made it very clear that they do not want to be part of a wagering economy around territorial loss.

Polymarket and its satellite tools, by contrast, operate from a crypto culture where everything that can be priced will be, and where “degen” is worn as a badge rather than a slur. For one set of communities, war is an existential reality; for the other, it is a volatility source with an RSS feed.

The episode with PolyGlobe will fade from the news cycle. Pentagon Pizza Watch has already taken down the DeepState integration and promised not to touch the data without explicit permission. Polymarket’s war markets will keep trading, with their references to ISW and DeepState sitting in the rulebooks, and a fresh crop of users will keep discovering that they can bet on the fate of towns they have never heard of.

The real question is what gets left behind when prediction markets move from “Who wins the election” to “Who loses their home this quarter,” while Russia keeps firing cruise missiles at Ukrainian apartment blocks and Ukraine keeps launching drones into Russian cities that were once far from any front line.

If humanitarian mapping projects decide that betting platforms are parasitic, the likely move is to retreat: more friction, more locked-down data, fewer open feeds. That may frustrate degens, but they will find something else to gamble on. The people who cannot route around that withdrawal are the civilians who depend on clean, fast, open intelligence to navigate their days in their war-forsaken towns.

War betting defenders will say that markets only mirror reality, that odds on a ceasefire or a breakthrough in Donbass are just numbers. But those numbers are painted over their real places where real people live, and every bet written against that backdrop feels like one more small cut to the fragile trust that keeps civilians sharing information and volunteers updating maps. The dark side of Polymarket’s war games is the slow corrosion of a digital commons created to help people survive a war, now forced to spend its time protecting itself from those who would turn that war into a game.

The post Polymarket war bets collide with the maps civilians use to survive appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Two major economies are tightening control over digital currencies just as the US pushes to cement its leadership in the stablecoin sector. Israel is accelerating its digital shekel plans while China continues to expand the digital yuan. 

These moves signal a broader global shift toward sovereign digital money that could challenge the reach and influence of US dollar–based stablecoins.

Israel Tightens Rules, Advances Digital Shekel

Stablecoins have become a central pillar of the digital asset market, moving well beyond their early role as a trading convenience. 

The sector now processes more than $2 trillion in monthly volume and holds a market cap above $310 billion, almost all of it in dollars. That growth has prompted private companies to assume a leading role in operating key components of global payment infrastructure.

As their influence expands, governments are stepping back in. Many are introducing new rules aimed at limiting the reach of USD-linked tokens.

During a recent conference in Tel Aviv, Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron stated that the country is preparing to implement much stricter oversight of stablecoins, citing growing concerns over the sector’s concentration.

With most activity dominated by Tether and Circle, he warned that any issue with their reserves or backing could spill into the wider financial system. 

Yaron also noted that stablecoins are now so embedded in global money flows that they can no longer be treated as a niche market, adding that the sector’s scale already rivals that of a mid-tier international bank.

Alongside these warnings, Israel is also accelerating its digital shekel initiative, its proposed central bank digital currency. 

The Bank of Israel recently published a detailed design document outlining user journeys, technical architecture, and key policy considerations. Officials say the project aims to strengthen the country’s payment infrastructure and reduce reliance on private digital assets.

As Israel builds its regulatory and technological framework, China is taking a far more forceful path.

Beijing Shuts Out Stablecoin Influence

China’s central bank has doubled down on its broad crypto ban, working with different government bodies to target stablecoin activity and close remaining loopholes.  Officials say digital assets fuel money laundering and capital flight, and they stress that these tokens carry no legal currency status.

The crackdown is also unfolding alongside the rapid growth of the digital yuan. 

According to Ledger Insights, the People’s Bank of China recently reported that e-CNY transaction volumes nearly doubled in the past 14 months, reaching $2 trillion by September. 

Pilot programs are now operational across major cities, public-sector payment systems, and select commercial routes. This push is embedding the state-issued currency deeper into daily financial activity.

By walling off stablecoins and accelerating the digital yuan, China aims to cut dependence on foreign currency rails, especially those tied to the US dollar. The strategy also helps preserve tight control over data, capital flows, and payment infrastructure.

Together with Israel’s more measured but still sovereignty-driven approach, China’s escalation highlights a clear global shift. 

Major economies are no longer willing to let USD stablecoins define the future of payments. Many are now building or enforcing their own digital systems and challenging the US’s ambitions for stablecoin dominance.

The post Are Israel and China Threatening the US Stablecoin Plan? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The XRP Ledger recorded an abnormal surge in AccountSet and AMM Bid transactions this week, triggering widespread discussion across crypto Twitter. The ledger processed more than 40,000 AccountSet transactions in late November, marking its highest configuration activity in years.

The activity continued even after BitGo ended its batch updates. This indicates new actors are preparing or reconfiguring large numbers of accounts, rather than routine custodial adjustments.

What the AccountSet Surge Indicates

AccountSet transactions update settings, including security flags, AMM (Automated Market Maker) permissions, and multi-sig configurations. They are typically used when institutions prepare accounts for new services or liquidity operations.

Therefore, a spike of this magnitude suggests structured onboarding. Analysts believe this may involve custodians, market makers, or automated systems configuring XRPL accounts at scale.

The pattern resembles network preparation rather than retail behavior. 

Previous spikes linked to custodial maintenance did not reach current levels, reinforcing the view that new participants are entering the network.

AMM Bid Activity Signals Liquidity Positioning in XRP

AMM Bid transactions also surged after November 23. These transactions help liquidity providers bid for AMM auction slots and position themselves within XRPL’s automated market-maker pools.

The sharp rise suggests liquidity actors are preparing to secure early positions. Early bids often capture the most profitable rewards, making the timing significant.

The AMM spike coincides with broader XRPL developments. RLUSD approvals, AMM rollout progress, and institutional onboarding have all accelerated in recent weeks. This offers a possible explanation for the sudden liquidity movement.

XRP ETF Inflows Add Another Layer of Context

The surge also follows the debut of spot XRP ETFs in the United States. The products accumulated $643.92 million in net inflows and reached $676.49 million in total ETF assets. 

Inflows increased on nine of the last ten sessions, showing strong institutional demand.

While ETF inflows do not directly interact with the XRP Ledger, they influence how custodians manage XRP storage and security. 

Large ETF demand can trigger new institutional custody accounts, reconfigured storage systems, expanded wallet infrastructure, and preparation for higher settlement activity. These processes often involve AccountSet transactions. 

Therefore, the ETF wave may be indirectly contributing to the configuration spike.

Implications for the Market

The combined surge in configuration and AMM activity signals structural preparation beneath the XRP ecosystem. This type of activity often precedes network upgrades, liquidity expansion, or new institutional pipelines.

Although XRP price remains volatile, the ledger’s data suggests increasing backend activity. Market watchers view the patterns as early indicators of broader engagement, rather than isolated anomalies.

For now, developers have not commented publicly. 

However, the coordinated rise in AccountSet and AMM Bid transactions points to meaningful infrastructure changes underway on the XRP Ledger.

The post XRP Ledger Activity Suddenly Exploded This Week, What Is It Signalling appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Ethereum lost the critical $3,000 level on Sunday, sliding toward $2,800 and triggering a new wave of fear across the market. The drop highlights a deepening corrective phase that has pushed short-term investors into heavy unrealized losses, prompting many to reassess their risk exposure.

Adding to the uncertainty, fresh on-chain data has revealed renewed distribution from major holders. According to data from Arkham, shared by Lookonchain, the well-known whale 0xdECF deposited another 5,000 ETH—roughly $15.05 million—into Binance.

This move expands a pattern of consistent selling pressure from large wallets, often seen during heightened market stress. While one whale does not define the broader trend, these deposits usually reinforce bearish sentiment among traders who monitor exchange inflows as a proxy for potential sell-side liquidity.

Whale Distribution Deepens Amid Broader Market Anxiety

Since October 28, the same whale wallet has accelerated its selling activity, unloading 25,603 ETH—approximately $85.44 million—across Binance and Galaxy Digital. Despite this aggressive distribution, the wallet still holds 10,000 ETH valued at roughly $30.34 million, leaving open the possibility of continued sell pressure if market conditions weaken further. Large-scale movements like these often signal a shift in sentiment from sophisticated holders who tend to anticipate volatility earlier than the broader market.

This selling spree comes at a moment when confidence is already fragile. The recent Tether FUD, fueled by speculation around reserve transparency and potential regulatory scrutiny, has added stress to liquidity conditions.

Meanwhile, renewed headlines about a supposed China Bitcoin ban have resurfaced on social media, amplifying fear across both retail traders and short-term investors. Although neither narrative reflects new fundamental risks, emotional markets often react sharply to sensational news during corrective phases.

Together, these factors create a backdrop where whale distributions gain outsized influence. If the remaining 10,000 ETH enters exchanges, it could deepen short-term downside pressure. Conversely, a pause in selling may suggest that the whale views current levels as near-capitulation territory, offering a potential floor for stabilization.

Ethereum Price Tests Support as Downtrend Remains Intact

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a market still struggling to regain momentum after losing the $3,000 handle. The broader structure remains decisively bearish, with price trading below the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA—a clear indication that sellers continue to control the trend. Each attempt to recover above the moving averages has been rejected, reinforcing the downtrend that began in late October and has continued through November.

The recent bounce from the $2,750–$2,800 support zone shows that buyers are defending this level, but the reaction lacks conviction. Volume remains muted, and the latest attempt to reclaim $3,000 quickly failed, forming another lower high. This signals hesitation and suggests that bulls are not yet strong enough to shift market structure.

The compression seen toward the end of the chart formed a small symmetrical triangle, but the breakdown that followed confirms that sellers still dominate short-term momentum. As long as ETH remains below the 200 EMA—now near $3,350—the macro trend favors continuation to the downside.

If $2,800 breaks cleanly, the next liquidity pockets sit around $2,600 and $2,450, levels that could attract stronger buyer interest. For now, Ethereum must reclaim $3,000 with sustained volume to neutralize bearish pressure.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

A fresh analysis points to a developing bullish pattern that may set the stage for a massive surge in the Dogecoin price. The crypto analyst who shared this analysis argues that the current structure in DOGE’s trend suggests the early formation of a recovery move strong enough to trigger a 174% price rally. With momentum building and technical indicators aligning, this new setup could be the catalyst that pushes Dogecoin out of its downtrend. 

Dogecoin Price Trend Signals 174% Rally

Dogecoin is entering a phase that analysts say could be the beginning of a powerful bullish structure forming on the charts. According to crypto market expert Javon Marks, the popular meme coin is maintaining a series of signals pointing toward a major upside continuation phase. If confirmed, these developments could open the door to an explosive 174% rally in the weeks ahead.

Marks explained that Dogecoin’s price behavior is beginning to reflect a bullish trend that could accelerate rapidly. The chart shows that momentum indicators are displaying early signs of strength and recovery while key support levels have remained firmly intact. This combination is laying the foundation for a much bigger breakout, one that the analyst predicts could spark a rally well above 174%. 

The analysis shows that the projected 174% rally is part of a broader recovery wave, with Dogecoin expected to reach $0.374 as its first target. Beyond that stage, a more ambitious goal sits near $0.6533, a level that lies more than 315% above DOGE’s current price of $0.136. Even more impressively, Marks has forecasted an explosive surge to $1.25, representing a staggering 820% increase in the meme coin’s price. 

The accompanying chart shows Dogecoin forming a series of higher supports following a prolonged corrective period. According to Marks, this developing trend shows that the meme coin is maintaining strong bullish signals despite its volatile price action over the recent months. The chart also displays a clear break from its extended downtrend, followed by a sequence of impulsive waves that continue to hold above previous lows.

Dogecoin Eyes Breakout Above Key Resistance Zone

Sharing similar bullish sentiments, crypto analyst Sudelytic notes that Dogecoin is showing signs of a resurgence after a prolonged period of quiet activity. According to the expert, the meme coin is approaching a key resistance zone between $0.30 and $0.35, a price range that could determine its next move.

If Dogecoin breaks above this zone with strength, Sudelytic predicts it could target new levels above $1.5. Despite its strong breakout potential, the analyst cautions that this resistance area is challenging to overcome. A failure to move past it could result in additional sideways action before any significant upward momentum returns. 

Given the significance of this resistance, Sudelytic notes that Dogecoin’s price action is being closely monitored. He points out that the meme coin’s history of unexpected rallies is the key reason why he remains optimistic about its outlook.